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What will the 2023 migration trend be?

What will the 2023 migration trend be?

What will the 2023 migration trend be?

Fewer Americans decided to move in 2022, continuing a trend that has been observed for the past six years. The moving rate declined even further last year, as indicated by the change-of-address data from the United States Postal Service®. Although millions of people moved during the pandemic, driven by the opportunity to work remotely, the desire for more space, and better affordability, the moving rate has declined over the years. The U.S. Census Bureau has not yet released the moving rate for 2022, but the net domestic migration data for each state in 2022 shows that twenty-six states experienced an influx of people while twenty-five states lost movers. Florida, Texas, and the Carolinas were the states with the most net domestic migration gains, boosting population growth in these areas. On the other hand, California, New York, and Illinois experienced the largest net domestic outmigration, leading to a further drop in their population.

Looking at the local level, the USPS change-of-address data was used to identify local migration trends for 2022. Most areas that experienced the largest influx of people were in Florida, Texas, and the Carolinas, where there was a robust job market recovery after the pandemic. In contrast, big city centers such as New York, San Francisco, and Chicago continued to lose movers, primarily due to affordability concerns. The Miami metro area experienced the largest inbound gains across the country, followed by areas such as Scranton, PA, Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI, Colorado Springs, CO, and Cleveland, OH.

Housing continues to be the main reason people move, and data shows that housing-related moves rose even further due to the pandemic. 46% of the moves were made for housing-related reasons in 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. However, it remains to be seen if this trend will continue as the pandemic recedes and the job market stabilizes.

Another factor influencing migration patterns is the increasing availability of remote work. With more companies offering flexible work arrangements, people are no longer tied to living in close proximity to their workplace. This has opened up new possibilities for where people choose to live, and has led to an increase in migration to areas with lower cost of living and better quality of life. However, it remains to be seen if this trend will continue as companies reassess their remote work policies and employees return to the office.

In conclusion, while the pandemic has had a significant impact on migration patterns in the United States, there are other factors at play as well, including job market recovery, affordability, and remote work opportunities. While some areas have seen significant inbound migration, others continue to experience outbound migration, and it remains to be seen how these trends will evolve in the coming years.

Tell us your predictions and why. Will more people leave states like California, New, York, Illinois and Wyoming than those states gain in the next year or will we start to see these trends leveling off post-pandemic?


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